December 2025 – South Africa’s beef industry closed 2025 on a cautiously optimistic note, buoyed by a long-awaited recovery in global and local beef prices, yet constrained by persistent disease pressures, rising input costs, and a fragile export environment.
This assessment comes from Gert Blignaut, CEO of Beefmaster Group, one of South Africa’s leading suppliers of beef products to both local and international markets.
“We have navigated a significantly volatile operating environment, and this is likely to continue deep into 2026 and 2027. That said, we remain cautiously optimistic about the year ahead,” says Blignaut.
Supply and Demand Drive a Price Upswing in 2025
Despite ongoing challenges, 2025 delivered meaningful relief for cattle farmers and beef producers, largely due to a global and local shortage of beef that helped rebalance supply and demand.
“For the first time in years, the early undertone of positivity materialised,” Blignaut explains. “Global meat prices lifted, and South Africa followed.”
Between February and May 2025, slaughter cattle prices increased by approximately 15%, driven primarily by genuine supply scarcity rather than panic buying or disease-driven market distortions at that stage.
Smaller Herds, Lower Slaughter Numbers, Better Prices
- Global and local herd sizes declined
- Slaughter numbers fell
- Beef availability tightened
“Herds were smaller, and slaughter volumes were down, which supported a healthier pricing environment – one we haven’t seen in the past three to five years,” says Blignaut.
For the feedlot sector, which has faced sustained financial pressure since 2022, this pricing improvement provided critical breathing room.
Consumer Pressure vs Global Competitiveness
While South African consumers continued to feel the strain of inflation, unemployment, and weak economic growth, Blignaut notes that South African beef remains among the most affordable globally.
Indicators such as the Big Mac Index reflect this affordability, even as local beef maintains a strong reputation for quality and continues to attract international demand.
Slaughter and Production Outlook: 2025 vs 2026
Based on current data and slaughter projections:
- Beef slaughter numbers in 2025 are estimated to be 5%7% lower than in 2024
- Total meat production is down more sharply, by 13%–15%, due to smaller animals entering the market
“If herd sizes normalise in 2026, more beef will come to market,” Blignaut explains. “To sustain positive price levels, either local consumption must increase – which requires economic growth – or South Africa must expand its export footprint.”
This reality underpins the industry’s conservative outlook for 2026.
Foot-and-Mouth Disease: The Industry’s Breaking Point
Despite improved global supply dynamics, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) remains the most significant destabilising force in South Africa’s beef industry.
From Containment to Nationwide Impact
Originally concentrated in KwaZulu-Natal, FMD spread across the country in 2025 and entered the feedlot sector mid-year, triggering an additional 10% spike in cattle prices.
For processors and retailers, this resulted in severe price volatility and operational disruption.
“FMD has evolved into an economic disease,” says Blignaut. “When an outbreak hits a region, it immediately loses economic value.”
Government Response: FMD Free with Vaccination
In November 2025, the government confirmed a national FMD vaccination programme, a pivotal step for industry recovery.
On 18 December 2025, the Minister of Agriculture announced the implementation of a new policy framework: ‘FMD Free with Vaccination’, developed alongside the Ministerial Advisory Task Team. Key developments include:
- 950,000 animals vaccinated using government stock
- Priority-area vaccinations scheduled to begin in February 2026
- Feedlot vaccination parameters to be announced by the end of January 2026
- Significant implementation milestones expected in early 2026
Blignaut welcomes the progress but stresses urgency.
“Our industry cannot afford delays. Speed is critical.”
Export Markets Under Pressure in a Disease Environment
For the FMD Free with Vaccination strategy to succeed, Blignaut emphasises that trade agreements must allow beef from vaccinated herds into export markets.
While many existing export partners have signalled willingness to accept vaccinated beef, formal government-to-government negotiations are still required to update health certification protocols.
“A dedicated export negotiating team within the Department of Agriculture could fast-track this process and align industry needs with international market requirements,” he says.
Beef Export Performance and Market Shifts
In 2024, South Africa exported more than 38,000 tonnes of beef. However, exports in 2025 are estimated to decline by approximately 30%, largely due to ongoing foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) disruptions and the loss of market access to China.
As export volumes contracted, South African beef exporters increasingly relied on Middle Eastern markets, where demand has remained resilient. At the same time, Blignaut points to emerging growth opportunities in Southeast Asia, particularly in Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia, as potential drivers of export recovery.
2026 Outlook: Cautious Optimism with Urgent Action Required
“There is light at the end of the tunnel,” Blignaut concludes, “but only if we act decisively.”
The successful rollout of the national vaccination programme, combined with swift and effective export negotiations, will determine whether 2026 becomes a year of stabilisation and renewed growth for South Africa’s cattle and beef industry.
